Alternative fuel vehicle industry, as one of China’s strategic emerging industries, the development process will be faced with many risks, according to the characteristics of the industry, identify the risk scientific and timely, and take appropriate measures to ensure the realization of industry’s planning and goals, continuously upgrade the industry's international competitiveness, has vital significance of realizing the sustainable development of economy. On the basis of earlier studies’ review, this paper use scenario analysis method to identify the risk of China’s alternative fuel vehicle industry.