Original Articles: 2014 Vol: 6 Issue: 6
Go left or right-dilemma which China telecommunications industry reform are facing?
Since 1998, the telecommunications industry in China have undergone great growth. But behind those success, what are key drivers of this growth? Did the 3 significant reforms play positive roles on the growth? The paper researches the time sequence characteristics of total factor productivity(TFP) variation by Using Malmquist Index Method.And basing on 12 years successive dataduring 2001-2012, the paper analyzes the effects of 3 significant reforms during that periods. It finds technical progress is the main driver for this growth and 3 reforms result positive influence on productivity growth, but always delays. It also finds the productivity growth speed is slowing down and the “ceiling” appears. After analyzing the new treats from OTT business etc., the paperpresents further comments on the "dilemma" which China government are facing: go left to oligopoly or go right to privatization. The paper innovatively studies more than 10 years TFP growth of China telecommunications as whole and firstly research the effects of year 2008’s reform. The paper also innovatively studies the development of new OTT business and firstly comments on that the new business from private sector already highly treats on traditional state own carriers and why hide and consider to go left?