Based on collection and statistics of the aircraft carrier formation combat subjects exercise data, this paper introduces in case reasoning technology and service frequency adaptive calculation to endow weight to feature attribute, forming an intelligent POL consumption prediction method based on adaptive case reasoning. Considering the complex problems in the consumption prediction process such as uncertain concept, dynamic scene, diverse characterization and irregular cases, the aircraft carrier formation POL support case library has been structured and the current prediction problem has been solved by reuse or update of aircraft carrier formation POL consumption prediction source case, which effectively remedies the prediction defect by standard coefficient prediction method. It has been proved by practices to be a feasible and intelligent prediction method of good expandability, transportability and self-learning capability.